India papers over cracks with Pakistan
By Chietigj Bajpaee

Last week's offer of renewed talks between India and Pakistan remains mere rhetoric in the absence of any real progress on the core issues plaguing the bilateral relationship and with the reluctance of either side to seek a new approach to address areas of contention.

The offer of dialogue notably followed the United States government's decision to issue a fresh travel alert for India on January 30, warning of possible terrorist attacks similar to the coordinated attacks in Mumbai in November 2008. It also comes amid a period of renewed militant infiltration across the Line of Control (LoC) dividing Indian and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. These developments reaffirm the region's precarious security environment and the possibility of renewed conflict despite the recent wave of optimism generated by the offer of dialogue.

Negative rhetoric fuels tense reality
A lack of progress on the "composite dialogue" peace process between India and Pakistan has created a prolonged period of mistrust between both states. Despite several high-profile meetings between the Indian and Pakistani leadership over the last year, there has been a lack of substantive progress aside from a few symbolic confidence-building measures.

The much-touted meeting between Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his Pakistani counterpart Yousuf Raza Gilani on the sidelines of the Non-Aligned Movement summit in July, which was preceded by a meeting between Manmohan and Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, has created further bitterness amid allegations of appeasement on both sides rather than reviving bilateral relations.

While Pakistan has filed charges against seven people in connection with the Mumbai attacks, perceptions persist in India that Pakistan has pursued a half-hearted effort in pursuing the perpetrators of the attacks. Several militants including Hafiz Muhammad Saeed, leader of Jammut ud-Dawa, a front organization for the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) militant group that was held responsible for the attack, remain at large.

This climate of mistrust has been exasperated by both countries' fundamentally divergent positions on Afghanistan, with Pakistan favoring rapprochement with the Taliban, India opposing such an initiative, while the international community is increasingly leaning toward Pakistan's position in the aftermath of the London conference last month.

Added to this are several recent symbolic actions and statements that have fueled a growing sense of acrimony between both states. A speech by Indian army chief Deepak Kapoor at a training command seminar in December about preparing the military for fighting a two-front war with China and Pakistan has renewed perceptions in Islamabad about India's belligerent intentions.

United States Secretary of Defense Robert Gates' statement in January during a visit to India that "Indian patience would be limited were there to be further attacks" suggested that the US would be unable to restrain India in the event of another Mumbai-style terrorist attack. More likely, this was an attempt by the US to renew pressure on both states to restart their process of reconciliation.

Beyond the political and military level, relations have also deteriorated at the people-to-people level. This was evidenced most recently when no Pakistani players were picked during the Indian Premier League (IPL) auction for the Twenty20 cricket tournament in March. While the teams claim that visa and security concerns deterred them from bidding for the Pakistani players, it has been interpreted as an insult by some in Pakistan.

Deficiencies remain in security infrastructure
Added to the fragile state of bilateral relations is the precarious security environment on both sides of the border. Despite the absence of a major terrorist attack in India in over a year since the Mumbai attacks and reports that several high-profile plots have been foiled, the growing sophistication of militant tactics, their growing transnational capabilities, combined with continued deficiencies in India's security infrastructure make another terrorist attack on India over the next year a likely possibility.

A sense of alert fatigue has developed in India amid the surge in travel alerts and security advisories in the aftermath of the Mumbai terrorist attacks. Credible threats, such as the alleged plot to hijack an Indian airliner in December, which prompted stepped-up security across airports in the region, have been accompanied by more implausible threats such as reports that militants are attempting to acquire gliders to fly across the border.

The Mumbai police have noted that they have received almost 600 alerts in the year since the November 2008 attacks, demonstrating the extent to which the civilian population and security and civilian leaderships remain on edge. The growing transnational capabilities of Pakistan-based terrorist groups such as the LeT has increased this sense of vulnerability (and paranoia) in India. This was most visibly demonstrated with the arrest of David Coleman Headley and Tahawwur Rana in the United States and Canada, respectively in October and their alleged links to LeT and the Mumbai attacks.

The government claims that it has averted at least a dozen major terrorist attacks since the Mumbai one. A national counter-terrorism center and national-intelligence database are to be established this year following the establishment of the National Investigation Agency last year in order to improve intelligence coordination and collection. However, these initiatives are likely to be slow-moving in overcoming well-entrenched levels of inter-agency rivalry among India's intelligence agencies.

Kashmir: Return to square one?
At the same time, Jammu and Kashmir, which has been the traditional focal point of bilateral tensions, faces a renewed deterioration in its security climate. Despite a significant reduction in terrorist attacks in Indian-administered Kashmir in recent years, continued grievances by the local population combined with growing levels of militant infiltration across the LoC set the stage for renewed hostilities in the disputed territory.

A surge in militant infiltration has led to speculation that militants are returning to their traditional sanctuaries in Pakistan-administered Kashmir (PAK) amid ongoing pressure from Pakistani and US military operations in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Although there has been a decline in the number of militant attacks in Indian-administered Kashmir (IAK) in recent years, there has been a marked increase in the number of militant infiltration attempts with 110 people crossing the LoC in the first 11 months of 2009, up from 57 in 2008.

According to Indian army chief Kapoor, some 700 militants are waiting to infiltrate across the LoC into IAK. Notably, the attack by two militants in the Lal Chowk district of Srinagar in January, which was attributed to Pakistan-based terrorist outfits, marked the first major attack in the state capital in two years.

Aside from a surge in militant infiltration across the LoC into IAK, there has also been a surge in terrorist attacks in Pakistan-administered Kashmir (PAK), which has traditionally avoided instabilities despite being a sanctuary for militant groups. PAK has suffered four suicide bomb attacks since June, the latest being outside a Pakistani army barracks in Tarakhal in January, which followed several attacks in the state capital Muzaffarabad. The region has also experienced a surge in sectarian violence with attacks on the Shi'ite Muslim community, leading to concerns over the growth of Islamic extremist ideology in the region.

The Indian government for its part has attempted to relax its heavy-handed security presence in the region. In December, Defense Minister A K Antony announced the withdrawal of two army divisions comprising 30,000 Indian troops from the state.

Nonetheless, local grievances continue to act as a catalyst for instabilities; in 2008 a dispute over the use of land for an annual Hindu pilgrimage (Amaranth Yatra) sparked widespread unrest. In 2009, the alleged rape and murder of two women in the town of Shopian in May sparked violent demonstrations, which were revived in December when India's Central Bureau of Investigation ruled that they had drowned rather than been murdered. More recently, a curfew was imposed in Srinagar in February after two teenagers were killed by security forces, which set off protests in the city.

The state government alleges that the Indian military continues to occupy 50,000 hectares of land in the state while the continued enforcement of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act in the state is a source of grievance to the local population.

Political motives drive and deter reconciliation
The silver lining in the current climate may be a narrow window of opportunity created by a relatively stable government in India, which may accelerate momentum for renewed dialogue. Indian policymakers have little appetite for renewed conflict with Pakistan.

With the Indian National Congress (Congress)-led United Progressive Alliance government holding a strengthened mandate and facing a weakened opposition following its re-election last May, there is little political pressure on the government to appease allegations of being "soft on security". However, this window of stability is unlikely to last as assembly elections in several high-profile states in 2011-12 could shift the balance of power and revive the opposition.

At the same time, there is a growing recognition within India's policymaking elite that instability within Pakistan and conflict with Pakistan is detrimental to India's security. This was evidenced following the November 2008 attacks in Mumbai when speculation of India taking retaliatory action against Pakistan prompted the late former leader of the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan - TTP), Baitullah Mehsud, to pledge to put aside differences with the Pakistani government in order to fight against India.

There is recognition in India that conflict with Pakistan, which would be accompanied by travel advisories and the evacuation of foreigners from India, is also not conducive to the Indian government's goals of reviving the economy in the aftermath of the global economic downturn. The country is still reeling from the fallout of having several high-profile events, such as the Indian Premier League and Twenty20 relocated (in the case of the former) and delayed (in the case of the latter). With the country holding several high-profile events in 2010, notably the World Cup hockey tournament in February and Commonwealth Games in October, the government will be deterred from taking any belligerent action against Pakistan.

However, a fluid political environment in Pakistan and reluctance by elements of the Pakistani security forces to target militant sanctuaries within the country and seek a rapprochement with India will act as a continued deterrent to reconciliation. In contrast to the strengthened mandate of the Congress-led government in India, Pakistan faces the opposite scenario with Zardari facing eroding legitimacy.

With the National Reconciliation Order having lapsed last December, the stage is now set for corruption charges to be reopened against Zardari and several members of his Pakistan People's Party-led government. This has deterred progress in improving bilateral relations with the weak civilian leadership in Pakistan conscious that any progress made in improving relations with India could be interpreted as appeasement or stepping on the toes of the military, which has traditionally dominated foreign and security policies. Renewing tensions with India may in fact offer a means for the government to revive flagging support.

At the same time, the terms of several key security officials are due to end this year, including the director general of the Inter-Service Intelligence, Lieutenant General Shuja Pasha (in March), the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, General Tariq Majeed (in October) and army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani (in November). Conflict with India could offer a means for these officials to extend their terms and allow the military to re-exert its influence over the policymaking arena if the civilian government is seen to be taking actions that are detrimental to its interests.

Finally, the Pakistani military faces growing international pressure to step up operations in the other tribal agencies of the FATA in the aftermath of its offensive in South Waziristan in October. The authorities remain reluctant to do so, given an unwillingness to target "pro-Pakistani" militant groups such as the Afghan Taliban, the Haqqani group, Hezb-i-Islami (Gulbuddin Hekmatyar) and Gul Bahadur and Mullah Nazir factions of the TTP. This contrasts with its relative willingness to target "anti-Pakistani" militant groups such as the Hakimullah Mehsud faction of the TTP based in South Waziristan.

Adding to this are concerns that the surge in the US military presence in Afghanistan could result in an increase in cross-border military operations into Pakistan, notably in southern Balochistan province, which is believed to be the sanctuary of the Afghan Taliban leadership. Renewed hostilities with India would offer a means to delay or deter any expansion of military operations against militant sanctuaries in Pakistan.

The fact that the Pakistani military continues to maintain the majority of its resources on its eastern border with India rather than against militant sanctuaries along the western border with Afghanistan is evidence of its continued preoccupation with India rather than the threat of Islamic extremism.

Chietigj Bajpaee is a South Asia analyst at Control Risks, a London-based political and security consultancy. He has previously worked with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC, the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and IHS Global Insight.