US predominance is unlikely to fade away

By Vikram Sood

Former Secretary, R&AW; Vice President, ORF Centre for International Affairs

The US spent more than $607 billion on defence in 2008 according to SIPRI statistics and this constitutes 41% of global expenditure on defence. This far exceeds what the next nine countries spent during the same year. The Chinese spent $85 billion, the Russians $59 billion and the Indians $30 billion.

The Brazilians, the fourth member of the newly founded BRIC, spent even less. There are others who calculate that the US spends far more than this in its endeavour to maintain global primacy. America maintains about 750 military and intelligence bases world-wide and its intelligence budget exceeds India’s defence expenditure. Consider also the reach of the US Navy and Air Force and we have a clear idea of the extent of the difference between US forces and the rest of the world. The fact that the US ability to influence events in its favour is not commensurate with its expenditure and reach is ultimately immaterial since the power to deconstruct remains overwhelming.

It is for good reason therefore that the BRIC combine will remain, for the foreseeable future, a body that will concentrate on global economic, financial and climate issues while trying to build an increasingly multi-polar world order. All of them seek a bigger role in the management of the financial global order and are not prepared to pay for their own encirclement by allowing the US to overspend in dollars. Barring the Brazilians, the others have concerns in how the Great Game would play out in the 21st century.

American attempts to seek a role in Central Asia and the Caucasus worries the Russians, Indians fret about US military assistance to Pakistan and the Chinese remain concerned about US involvement in west Pacific and Taiwan. These are the geo-political drivers. The instrumentalities are going to be economic and financial and not military with China, for instance, willing to trade with Argentina and Brazil in renminbi. Sceptics argue that once multi-polarity is achieved the grouping will wither away under its bilateral contradictions and ambitions.

It is too early to predict as the US predominance is not likely to fade away soon but change is inevitable and BRIC will continue to hold for the time ahead.