Good news, bad news
By Kamran Shafi
Tuesday, 23 Feb, 2010

THERE is much news for our great military strategists, both very good and very bad indeed. First the good news. The high command of the Pakistan Army needn’t overly worry about the Afghan army ‘taking on’ Pakistan in the foreseeable future.

Here is part of a report in Sunday’s New York Times regarding the ongoing fighting in Marja:

“Scenes from this corner of the battlefield, observed over eight days … suggest that the day when the Afghan army will be well led and able to perform complex operations independently … remains far off. The effort to train the Afghan army has long been troubled, with soldiers and officers repeatedly falling short. And yet after nearly a decade of American and European mentorship and many billions of dollars of American taxpayer investment, American and Afghan officials have portrayed the Afghan army as the force out front in this important offensive against the Taliban.

“Statements from Kabul have said the Afghan military is planning the missions and leading both the fight and the effort to engage with Afghan civilians caught between the Taliban and the newly arrived troops. But that assertion conflicts with what is visible in the field. In every engagement between the Taliban and one front-line American Marine unit, the operation has been led in almost every significant sense by American officers and troops. They organised the forces for battle, transported them in American vehicles and helicopters from western-run bases into Taliban-held ground, and have been the primary fighting force each day.

“The Afghan National Army, or ANA, has participated. At the squad level it has been a source of effective, if modestly skilled, manpower. Its soldiers have shown courage and a willingness to fight … by all other important measures, though — from transporting troops, directing them in battle and coordinating fire support to arranging modern communications, logistics, aviation and medical support — the mission in Marja has been a Marine operation conducted in the presence of fledgling Afghan army units, whose officers and soldiers follow behind the Americans and do what they are told.

“That fact raises questions about President Obama’s declared goal of beginning to withdraw American forces in July 2011 and turning over security to the Afghan military and the even more troubled police forces. There have been ample examples in the offensive of weak Afghan leadership and poor discipline to boot … no Marine officer had seen an Afghan use a map or plan a complicated patrol. In another indicator of marginal military readiness, the Afghan platoon had no weapons heavier than a machinegun or a rocket-propelled grenade.

“Afghan officers organised no indirect fire support whatsoever in the week of fighting. All supporting fire — air strikes, rockets, artillery and mortars — was coordinated by Marines. The Afghans also relied entirely on the American military for battlefield resupply. Moreover, in multiple fire fights in which Times journalists were present, many Afghan soldiers did not aim — they pointed their American-issued M-16 rifles in the rough direction of the incoming small-arms fire and pulled their triggers without putting rifle sights to their eyes. Their rifle muzzles were often elevated several degrees high.”

So there, gentlemen, you can breathe a little easy: the Afghan army is not about to ‘take on’ Pakistan any time soon.

But, now for the bad news. In addition to what the NYT reporters say about questions being raised about the start of an American withdrawal in July 2011, Centcom chief Gen Petraeus has clearly said in NBC TV’s Meet the Press programme, also on Sunday, that the Marja operation is only “the ‘initial salvo’ in a military campaign that could last 12 to 18 months”.

Eighteen months from now, gentlemen, takes us to August 2011. If the ‘military campaign’ ends in August, by when will the Americans withdraw please, after they have handed over to the non-existent Afghan army? And since when have deadlines such as these which have to do with operations, ever been met in military history? So no strategic depth very soon either, sirs, so stand easy use hanky.

A little on strategic depth in Afghanistan before we go on to yet another ludicrous matter. And that is the fact that of the total Afghan population 42 per cent are Pakhtuns and 58 per cent Tajik, Hazara, Uzbek, Aimak, Turkmen, Baloch and others. The ‘strategic depth’ policies of the Pakistani state specially under army dictators, has seen to it that let alone the others who actively dislike us, even a majority of the Afghan Pakhtun are not very fond of us. So there! I suppose the brass hats can take it easy on that front too.

And now for Mullah Brother! Where the blazes was this man just three weeks ago? We were told soon after his arrest that the ISI took action when the Americans gave it ‘accurate’ information. As a Pakistani who has seen the shenanigans of the ISI for well on 40 years, what I should like to ask is why the omnipotent Mother of All Agencies did not know where the ‘director-general military operations’ of the Afghan Taliban was, by its self? Why did (unwelcome, remember?) foreigners have to give this ‘premier’ agency information on the mullah which led to his arrest?

As an aside, a request to their lordships of the Supreme Court who have just recently humbled an elected government all ends up. The ISPR has announced that whilst promotions of generals are to be ratified by the government, it is the army chief’s very own prerogative to give extensions to whichever general he wills. Suo motu notice, my lords? For, after all, all the organs of state are to remain within their own constitutional limits.

Mushism of the week: “You should come to Pakistan — it’s the most happening place in the world, where there’s never a dull moment” – Gen Pervez Musharraf, London, Feb 15, 2010. The man ought to be ashamed of himself to refer to our unfortunate country in the way that he did, where tens of people die violently every single day at the hands of the demons let loose by himself and others of his ilk. Happening place indeed. Why doesn’t he himself come back?